I would have liked to put this list up some weeks ago, but due to the late release dates of some of the big nominees this wasn't possible. So like last year I've had a look at the nominations in each category and have tried to predict who the likely winners will be. I have also indicated who I think the winners should be. There's one less category in the list than there was last year because I haven't managed to see a single film from any of the 'Short' categories. So it's a total of 21 predictions this year.

Update - I have just highlighted the winners in bold. In total, I correctly predicated 14 out of 21 categories which is 66% (up 7% on last year). Had there not been a couple of real surprises it could have been even higher. Even so, that number will be tricky to beat next year.

Best Picture

Babel
The Departed
Letters from Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen

It's arguably one of the most open Best Picture races of recent times. Crash's win last year was a real upset, but up until the night Brokeback Mountain was almost a dead certainty. This year awards have gone all over the place. The Queen took the BAFTA, Babel won at the Golden Globes and Little Miss Sunshine triumphed at the PGAs. The Departed and United 93 (not nominated) were the the critics' favourites. I'm going to stick my neck out and say that The Departed is going to take home the Oscar, and that's not just because I didn't like Babel. The Golden Globe winners are voted for by a very small number of people (who don't vote for the Oscars), and as such I don't think they're the best indicator. The Departed is almost universally liked, and everyone loves Martin Scorsese. I'd be happy with that result, and wouldn't mind it too much if Little Miss Sunshine won either.

Best Director

Clint Eastwood - Letters from Iwo Jima
Stephen Frears - The Queen
Paul Greengrass - United 93
Alejandro González Iñárritu - Babel
Martin Scorsese - The Departed

It's not as certain as some people are suggesting, but I think this will finally be Scorsese's year. I don't actually think his closest competition will be Iñárritu, who hasn't won anything apart from Best Director at Cannes, but Paul Greengrass. He won the BAFTA, and many critics also picked him. I'd certainly like Scorsese to win though, and it's a good sign that he won at the Golden Globes and at the DGA (which like the Oscar he has never won before). I wouldn't be dismayed if Greengrass won, as my problems with United 93 were with the writing rather than the direction, but I'd be rather cross if Iñárritu took home the Oscar.

Best Actor

Leonardo Di Caprio - Blood Diamond
Ryan Gosling - Half Nelson
Peter O'Toole - Venus
Will Smith - The Pursuit of Happyness
Forest Whitaker - The Last King of Scotland

Forest Whitaker is the clear favourite, and I still think he's going to win. However, his closest rival is likely to be Peter O'Toole who might attract a certain number of sympathy votes. I'm disappointed not to see Sacha Baron Cohen in this category, especially after his Golden Globe win, and Leonardo Di Caprio should really have two nominations (one for The Departed), but that would arguably have hurt his chances even more. I'd be happy if Whitaker does go home with the award because it was a great performance, but in all honesty I don't think his was a leading role, whereas all the others (and Cohen's) certainly were.

Best Actress

Penélope Cruz - Volver
Judi Dench - Notes on a Scandal
Helen Mirren - The Queen
Meryl Streep - The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet - Little Children

I can't recall a year where this category has been such a certainty. Helen Mirren has won every single award of note up until this point, and only a couple of critics' groups went for other actresses. It was a brilliant performance and she'd be a worthy winner. However, it's almost a shame because Judi Dench's performance was easily her best work for a decade, and poor Kate Winslet just keeps getting nominated for nothing (but I'm sure she'll win one eventually). In fact, I think the least deserving person in this category is Meryl Streep; her role was obviously a supporting one, and despite her performance being very good all the others were on a different level.

Best Supporting Actor

Alan Arkin - Little Miss Sunshine
Jackie Earle Haley - Little Children
Djimon Hounsou - Blood Diamond
Eddie Murphy - Dreamgirls
Mark Wahlberg - The Departed

Eddie Murphy is the favourite and he has good reason to be. As well as picking up the Golden Globe he also won at the SAG awards, although he missed out to Alan Arkin for the BAFTA. There is some concern that his critical bomb Norbit will do him some harm, but I don't think voters will take much notice. I'm going to go for Murphy, but deep down I would rather like it to be one of the others. As good as Murphy was in Dreamgirls I think Haley, Arkin and particularly Hounsou brought more to their respective films than Murphy. However, I won't be disappointed as such if he does win, because it was a very good performance. I will be cross if Whalberg wins though; his was a fun and enjoyable performance, but nothing more.

Best Supporting Actress

Adriana Barraza - Babel
Cate Blanchett - Notes on a Scandal
Abigail Breslin - Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson - Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi - Babel

Jennifer Hudson has gone one better than Murphy and took the BAFTA, along with a number of other awards (including the SAG). It's strange though that someone can win an Oscar for being able to sing, because I thought her acting performance was mixed at best. When she wasn't singing she just stood there pouting and staring at people with her dead eyes. She's going to win, but I think some of the others, particularly Breslin and Kikuchi (the best thing about Babel by a country mile) deserve it more. I don't think Blanchett or Barraza are in with much of a chance, but one of the other two might get enough votes to upset the favourite.

Best Foreign Language Film

After the Wedding (Denmark)
Days of Glory (France)
Pan's Labyrinth (Mexico)
The Lives of Others (Germany)
Water (Canada)

I was somewhat irked when Letters from Iwo Jima won this at the Golden Globes, because the film was entirely funded by American studios. However, since it's not nominated here (but in Best Picture), I'm going for Pan's Labyrinth. It has plenty of other nominations which suggest it's in favour with voters, and it has also picked up many other awards, including the BAFTA. It's also the only one of the nominees I've managed to see; Volver is a surprising exclusion from this category. Pan's Labyrinth is a marvelous film and I do hope it triumphs here, although there is talk of a late surge for The Lives of Others.

Best Animated Feature Film

Cars
Happy Feet
Monster House

Cars has won plenty of awards this year and I have no doubt it will win the Oscar. But I also think voters for many awards have been so blinded by their love for Pixar that they can't see how much better Monster House really is. I saw around 200 theatrical releases last year and that fact that Monster House made it into my 'Top 10' shows how highly I regard it; I wasn't obligated to pick an animated film remember. Happy Feet was very pretty but it had no plot, and its winning of the BAFTA really surprised me.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Borat
Children of Men
The Departed
Little Children
Notes on a Scandal

This is an interesting category because the award really could go anywhere. The BAFTA result is unhelpful because it went to The Last King of Scotland, which of course isn't nominated. Truth be told I'd love it if the Oscar went to the people behind Borat, not only because I liked the film so much but because it would compensate for a couple of nominations I feel the film missed out on (including Best Actor). However, there are a couple of reasons why I don't think this will happen. First of all, the WGA winner was The Departed (William Monahan), which sets that film up as the favourite. The other reason is explained in the next paragraph. I wouldn't mind at all if The Departed did win, but it would be terrific if Borat won instead.

Best Original Screenplay

Babel
Letters from Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
Pan's Labyrinth
The Queen

This result is hopefully a little easier to predict, and I think it's going to be Little Miss Sunshine. Not only did it win the BAFTA and the WGA, it also has that Best Picture win from the PGAs. Its Best Picture nomination also helps a bit, as writing Oscars more often than not go to nominees in that category. The way this category relates to Borat's chances in the other one is simply that few voters will want to give both writing awards to comedies. Little Miss Sunshine is the stronger nominee in terms of total nominations, so I suspect it will be getting plenty of votes while Borat will be pushed aside for The Departed.

Best Music - Score

Babel
The Good German
Notes on a Scandal
Pan's Labyrinth
The Queen

When John Williams takes a year off you really do notice it. It hasn't been a great year for music in films, although a few scores have impressed me. This category is tricky to call because the other awards have been rather scattered. The Golden Globe went to Alexandre Desplat for The Painted Veil, which isn't nominated, and the BAFTA to Gustavo Santaolalla for Babel. Considering who actually votes for the respective awards I'm going for Santaolalla for a second win in as many years. Personally, I thought the score was useless, but he's very much in fashion at the moment. I thought both Pan's Labyrinth (Javier Navarrete) and The Queen (Desplat) had very good scores indeed, but I also reckon that voters will be split between the choices and that Babel will triumph in the end.

Best Music - Song

I Need To Wake Up - An Inconvenient Truth
Dreamgirls - Listen
Dreamgirls - Love You I Do
Cars - Our Town
Dreamgirls - Patience

I wonder why the nominees from Dreamgirls are some of the weaker ones in the film. There's no 'And I'm Tellin' You' for example, and I also think having three nominations might hurt the chances of any of them winning, since it could lead to split voting. Because no other awards actually have this category it's a difficult one to predict, but I'm going to hedge my bets and go for 'Love You I Do'. There are two reasons for this - I think it's the strongest song of the three nominated from Dreamgirls. It's also one of the songs Jennifer Hudson sings on her own, and considering her popularity I think this further bolsters its chances. One of the others might nick it, but it would be surprising for the musical not to come away with this Oscar.

Best Documentary Feature

Deliver Us from Evil
An Inconvenient Truth
Iraq in Fragments
Jesus Camp
My Country My Country

An Inconvenient Truth isn't necessarily a certainty, but overall popularity tends to help in this category so I'm going for it. Since I haven't seen any of the others (their UK releases were pathetically limited) I can't really pass comment on them. However, even though An Inconvenient Truth is popular, particularly among Hollywood liberals, the subject matter of Iraq in Fragments means the race is probably closer than it appears. Then there's also Deliver Us from Evil which has a very controversial subject matter, and this makes things even more interesting.

Best Visual Effects

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
Poseidon
Superman Returns

As much as I preferred Superman Returns to either of the other nominees, there's little chance of anything but Pirates of the Caribbean winning here. To be fair the effects were probably the best thing about the film, and there was little I could fault them on. It's picked up pretty much every trophy out there, including the BAFTA and a haul from the Visual Effects Society Awards, so it's certainly the favourite here. Something I have often pondered though is why there are two categories for sound work, but only one for special effects. Years like this show how useful it would be to have two effects categories - the VES have one for 'Effects Driven' films, and another for all the rest.

Best Cinematography

The Black Dahlia
Children of Men
The Illusionist
Pan's Labyrinth
The Prestige

I have a feeling this is going to be Children of Men. I was surprised that it didn't get a Best Picture nomination because there seemed to be a lot of appriciation for it. However, its chances in this category are strong; not only did it win the BAFTA but a number of technical society awards as well. It would certainly be a deserved win, although Pan's Labyrinth would also be a respectable winner. The Black Dahlia's cinematography was probably the best thing about it, but it's rare that superb technical achievement in mediocre films is rewarded.

Best Art Direction

Dreamgirls
The Good Shepherd
Pan's Labyrinth
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
The Prestige

This isn't the easiest category to predict because there aren't really any others to compare it to. The BAFTA for Production Design, which is perhaps the closest similar category, went to Children of Men which of course isn't nominated. My hunch is that it's a toss up between Dreamgirls and Pan's Labyrinth. I'm going to go for the latter, and it's a good sign that it won at the Art Directors Guild. Even though in recent years musicals have outdone fantasies in this category I just think Pan's Labyrinth is the stronger contender.

Best Costume Design

Curse of the Golden Flower
The Devil Wears Prada
Dreamgirls
Marie Antoinette
The Queen

Memoirs of a Geisha won this award last year, and overall Asian films have a pretty strong record in this category. I've not seen the film yet, but just from the look of screenshots and trailers Curse of the Golden Flower looks a strong contender. It also has a win at the Costume Designers Guild. However, I'm going to go out on a limb and say Marie Antoinette instead. First of all, I wonder how many people will have actually seen the Chinese film; it wasn't an American studio production like Geisha was. The Academy voters love period costumes too which I think works against Dreamgirls. Another close category then, but Milena Canonero (of Marie Antoinette) is a costume design legend.

Best Make-Up

Apocalypto
Click
Pan's Labyrinth

I would actually say this category and Best Actress are the best bets of the whole lot. If this isn't Pan's Labyrinth I will buy a hat and eat it. The make-up in Click was just a decent fat suit, and there's no way anyone is going to touch Mel Gibson's film with a barge pole. That's not to say Pan's Labyrinth wouldn't be a worthy winner, because it most certainly would be, but it's the clear favourite and I'm almost positive it's going to triumph here.

Best Sound (Mixing)

Apocalypto
Blood Diamond
Dreamgirls
Flags of Our Fathers
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

This award tends to go to more 'technical' films, except in years when musicals are nominated. Musicals are very strong in this category, and as such I'm going for Dreamgirls here. I'm sure it will also get a few votes from those angry it missed out on a Best Picture nod. If it doesn't win I suspect Pirates of the Caribbean will take the Oscar, but I think that film has a better chance in the other sound category. Personally, I was very impressed with this side of Blood Diamond, but it doesn't stand a chance really.

Sound Editing

Apocalypto
Blood Diamond
Flags of Our Fathers
Letters from Iwo Jima
Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

You have to go back some years to find the last time this didn't go to a blockbuster. For the most part this Oscar has been the freebie that comes with the Visual Effects award, so I'm going for Pirates of the Caribbean here. To be fair it would certainly be a deserved award, as designing and editing sound effects for creatures and objects that don't actually exist is infinitely harder and more impressive than just recording guns firing.

Best Film Editing

Babel
Blood Diamond
Children of Men
The Departed
United 93

I think United 93 is probably the favourite here, and it would be a deserved win. The editing is part of why the first half of the film is so thrilling. It won the BAFTA and was easily the critics' choice in this category. The Departed and Children of Men might give it a run for its money, but I think there is also a general desire to see United 93 win at least one award, and this is probably the one it will take home.

The ceremony will take place on Sunday 25th February at the Kodak Theatre in Hollywood. For those of you lucky enough to have Sky Movies (or ABC in America), be sure to tune in to see the winners and losers. And as always, I hope I'm not wrong with every single prediction.

© David Mercier
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