I'd like to apologise for the lateness of the list this year. For some reason, in my mind I had put the Oscars a week later than they actually are, so I wasn't planning this until sometime next week. As always, I've had a look at the nominations in each category and have tried to predict who the likely winners will be. I have also indicated who I think the winners should be. There are no predictions for the 'Shorts' because I haven't seen any of them, but I'm still having a stab at Foreign Film, despite not seeing any of those either. So, as it was last year, it's a total of 21 predictions.

Update - I have just highlighted the winners in bold. In total, I correctly predicated 13 out of 21 categories which is 62% (it's one less than I got right last year). If it weren't for what I'd consider to be a couple of proper surprises I would have certainly matched last year's total.

Best Picture

Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

The sensible money here is on No Country for Old Men. As was the case with The Departed last year, the awards leading up to the Oscars haven't been overly kind to it. The Golden Globe went to Atonement, as did the BAFTA. In fact, the only thing No Country for Old Men has walked away with is the award from the PGA. But I'm not sure all this matters. Atonement lacks a Best Director nomination - something true of very few Best Picture winners. It also has the advantage of being British, so of course it was going to do well at the BAFTAs. On a personal level, the Joe Wright film would be my choice, but No Country for Old Men is an extremely fine offering and I'd have no problem whatsoever with it winning. There is a scenario where either Atonement or Juno (heaven forbid) could win - if No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood split the vote. You only need to look at 1998 to see how that can happen. But I still reckon the Coens' film will triumph in the end.

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood
Ethan Coen & Joel Coen - No Country for Old Men
Tony Gilroy - Michael Clayton
Jason Reitman - Juno
Julian Schnabel - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

It's a pretty safe bet to say that the Coens have this one locked down. They won the DGA, and the BAFTA - they lost out on the Golden Globe to Schnabel, but that's generally the least accurate predictor for this category. The absence of Joe Wright's name on this list is a real shock for me; nearly as much as the inexplicable inclusion of Reitman's. Didn't Juno pretty much direct itself? In the absence of Wright, I'd be happy with the Coens winning, and I honestly think they will. However, as with Best Picture, we might just see the Coens and Anderson splitting the vote. Will that give the award to Reitman? I hope not.

Best Actor

George Clooney - Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp - Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Tommy Lee Jones - In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen - Eastern Promises

It's interesting this year, because I'd say the male acting categories are pretty much locks, whereas the female races are wide open. I think AMPAS have probably engraved Daniel Day-Lewis's name onto this trophy already. He's going to win - he has won every single award we've had so far, including the Golden Globe, the BAFTA and the SAG. He'd be a worthy winner, obviously. That said, I would relish it if Tommy Lee Jones came in here for a surprise. He hasn't got a shot - he's won nothing, there's no buzz, and In the Valley of Elah just wasn't that popular. But his performance was so restrained and beautifully mannered, and it provides an interesting contrast to Day-Lewis's energetic bluster. Depp won the Golden Globe - for an Actor in a Musical or Comedy - but that category often fails to get a nomination when it comes to the Oscars, let alone indicate the likely winner.

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett - Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie - Away from Her
Marion Cotillard - La Vie en Rose
Laura Linney - The Savages
Ellen Page - Juno

What an interesting category this is. On the one hand you've got Christie walking away with a Golden Globe, a SAG award and loads of critical love. And then on the other you have Cotillard just winning the BAFTA and taking a tide of momentum with her into the final week of voting. I haven't reviewed either of these films, but I did see them both on DVD about a fortnight ago. If I were able to vote I'd go for Cotillard for sure. It's a better performance - a more challenging, and a more absorbing one. But Away from Her is about serious illness, and we all know how the Academy likes to reward people for playing the sick. It's almost as much as they like to reward people for being very attractive but made-up to look ugly, which Cotillard did. So you can see why this is a close one. But at the end of the day, I think Christie is going to nick it.

Best Supporting Actor

Casey Affleck - The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook - Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton

I start with an apology. I was so underwhelmed and generally fed up when I came out of seeing Into the Wild that I really didn't give Hal Holbrook the credit he deserved for his absolutely stellar performance. I don't think he has a chance, but if there were to be a shock win in this category then his performance would be a welcome one to get it. In fact, it's a really strong category right across the board. Bardem is the favourite, simply because he's won everything, and because he's awesome in No Country for Old Men. So he's more than likely going to win, and I wouldn't have a problem with that at all. Thinking about it - this is perhaps the only acting category this year where I would say that each performance is truly excellent.

Best Supporting Actress

Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There
Ruby Dee - American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan - Atonement
Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton

Frankly, I think I deserve a point for this category just because I'm willing to admit that somebody with a dartboard and pictures of the nominees has about the same chance of predicting the winner as me. The precursor awards are all over the place. Critics groups have been split, the Golden Globe went to Blanchett, the SAG went to Dee, and the BAFTA to Swinton. Truth be told, I don't know why Dee is even being considered. I thought she was fine in American Gangster, but I don't even think I mentioned her in my review. Gone Baby Gone never got released here so I've not seen what Ryan brought to that film. I'm going to go for Swinton. To be honest, I find this category pales in comparison to its male equivalent this year, but somebody has to win. Ronan was very good too, but younger performers sometimes just make up the numbers for this sort of thing. I'd be happy with a Swinton win, and with the BAFTA and the momentum, I think she stands a decent chance. I also reckon the Academy wants to give something decent to Michael Clayton because it's not going to win much else, and this must just be it.

Best Foreign Language Film

The Counterfeiters (Austria)
Beaufort (Israel)
Mongol (Kazakhstan)
Post Mortem (Poland)
12 (Russia)

I haven't seen any of these. I nearly went to see The Counterfeiters but decided against the trip. It's typical of the crazy way in which the entrants in this category are decided that the most popular, most praised and most widely seen foreign films of the last year aren't included. It's a bit of a stab in the dark for me then, but I'll go for The Counterfeiters. I'm doing this merely on the basis that from what I've read it's not too abstract or strange, and that it's apparently pretty good. The Academy likes safe choices and human interest stories in this category, so an accessible film with Nazis in it cannot be too far off the mark.

Best Animated Feature Film

Persepolis
Ratatouille
Surf's Up

Though I've heard good things about Persepolis, Ratatouille is about as close to a lock as you like for this one. It has won everything, and it's Pixar. It also enjoyed much better reviews and word of mouth than Cars did. Surf's Up seems to have been picked because AMPAS have some sort of unhealthy penguin obsession. Also, the fact that Beowulf has missed out on a nomination here is frankly a joke.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Atonement
Away from Her
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

On the grounds that I think it's going to take the night's top prize, and because it has scooped up so many other awards (including the WGA), I'm going for No Country for Old Men again. The Coens are known to be popular writers, and the fact that their script for this film was so good gives them an obvious boost. I wouldn't entirely ignore There Will be Blood - there might be a few people wanting to give it a little extra something, but I think this is another award heading to the Coen family trophy case. I'd personally like to see Atonement take one of the major prizes, because I think it's going to struggle elsewhere. But I don't rate it's chances here.

Best Original Screenplay

Juno
Lars and the Real Girl
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille
The Savages

Juno is going to win this, and I'm going to get very drunk as a result. It's a bit of an uninspiring category in a way, without a single what you'd call 'weighty' choice in there. I'm pleased for Brad Bird - he must be delighted to see himself nominated for something other than just the Animated Film award, but I don't think he's in with much hope. Juno has swept everything up in this category, including the BAFTA and the WGA award. I doubt the film is going to win anything else, so this is also the category where people who liked it might want to make sure it doesn't leave the night empty-handed.

Best Music - Score

Atonement
The Kite Runner
Michael Clayton
Ratatouille
3:10 to Yuma

An odd one, this. La Vie en Rose won the BAFTA, but isn't nominated, and Atonement won the Golden Globe, but those awards aren't picked by the same voters. The Kite Runner rather came and went too, so I'm going to stick with Dario Marianelli's score for Atonement here. I thought it was a very strong score, and I'd be happy with it winning. Though Michael Giacchino's score for Ratatouille was also very strong and might be a surprise winner. That all said, they'll probably find a way to give it to the hulking mediocrity that is Gustavo Santaolalla again, even though he's not nominated.

Best Music - Song

Raise It Up - August Rush
Enchanted - Happy Working Song
Enchanted - So Close
Enchanted - That's How You Know
Once - Falling Slowly

I'd be happy with any of the Enchanted songs winning this - they are all great for different reasons. But it's often the way that when a film gets three nominations in this category they can cancel each other out; it happened with Dreamgirls last year. Therefore, I'm going to go for the song from Once. The film was a bit of a sleeper hit in America - its release here has been useless so I've not seen it. And I also gather that the scene in which this song appears is incredible, which often gives a song an extra boost because it gets praise by association.

Best Documentary Feature

No End in Sight
Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience
Sicko
Taxi to the Dark Side
War Dance

To be honest, I think Michael Moore might have blown things with the Academy. After his controversial speech when he won for Bowling for Columbine, putting him back on the stage again would feel like asking your drunk Uncle over for Christmas again despite him vomiting on the turkey last year. That said, I have also heard very good things about No End in Sight. Apparently, it's an Iraq documentary that's good in its own right, and not just popular because it's about Iraq. So I'll go for that.

Best Visual Effects

The Golden Compass
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
Transformers

It seems the BAFTA voters had something of a collective stroke this year; how else can you explain the inclusion of Spider-Man 3 and The Bourne Ultimatum in this category, and the exclusion of Transformers? At World's End had admittedly strong effects, but I didn't think they looked as polished as in the previous film, and in many ways they were largely a rehash anyway. I think Transformers is the best bet here, and it would be my pick for sure. The effects in that film were undeniably excellent. It has the industry vote - it pretty much cleaned up at the VES awards. The Golden Compass won at the BAFTAs, but I still think the Michael Bay film is the front-runner. In fact, if it doesn't win, I might punch something.

Best Cinematography

The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Atonement
No Country for Old Men
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
There Will Be Blood

This is an odd one, because there's only one real clue as to where it might be going. Roger Deakins won the BAFTA for No Country for Old Men, and the issue is whether or not his Jesse James nomination will actually hurt his chances. I would say yes, if it weren't for two things. First of all, Deakins is a legend - 7 nominations now without an award. Secondly, I think No Country for Old Men is going to do a pretty effective sweep of the big awards, and Cinematography is an award that often goes along for the ride. I'd like to see some love for Atonement in this category, but I don't really see that happening. That said, No Country for Old Men would be a worthy winner.

Best Film Editing

The Bourne Ultimatum
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

Christopher Rouse won the Editing BAFTA (and the ACE award) for The Bourne Ultimatum, as he did for United 93 last year. But I'm just not convinced that the Academy likes that sort of quick and jumpy editing. I'm not even sure if I like it that much, and for these reasons I don't think it'll be successful on the night. The film also enjoyed a lot more respect from BAFTA than it has from AMPAS. I'd say this is probably going to be another win for No Country for Old Men - the Coens actually edited it themselves, too. It's an award that can go with the tide, so I think that's the best bet.

Best Art Direction

American Gangster
Atonement
The Golden Compass
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
There Will Be Blood

I wasn't overly fond of it, but if there's one thing Sweeney Todd has going for it it's Art Direction. The film is all about its look. That'd be my pick for where the award is heading, though I thought There Will Be Blood was particularly strong in this respect as well. All things considered though, I think this is a rather weak set of contenders; certainly compared with last year, which was one of the best of recent times. Atonement won the BAFTA that's a sort of rough equivalent, but I still think that people eager to give Sweeney Todd something will go for it here.

Best Costume Design

Across the Universe
Atonement
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
La Vie en Rose
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

Conventional wisdom says I should go for Atonement here. It's a Best Picture nominee, and it had that green dress that just about everyone remembers. But Atonement hasn't actually won anything on this front yet. The CDG award went to Sweeney Todd (which I don't think has much of a chance here), and the BAFTA went to La Vie en Rose, which is what I'm going for this time around. It seems like an odd way of looking at it, but La Vie en Rose also holds the ace of its nominee being dead. Seems harsh, but dead people have a statistically higher probability of winning when nominated than people who are not. It will be interesting to see what happens with his round. I have gotten it right for the last two years - last year my pick was one nobody else went for. So I'll be disappointed if I get this wrong because it means I will lose a point, but it will also break a slightly effeminate streak I seem to have going.

Best Make-Up

La Vie en Rose
Norbit
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End

As much as the film was a stinking turd of the highest proportions, Norbit did have a really, really good fat suit. But fat suits don't tend to win Oscars unless the film has a generally warm reception, such as The Nutty Professor. So I'm going for La Vie en Rose here too. It has some fine period make-up for sure, but making the really rather attractive Marion Cotillard look like a wrinkled midget is its real achievement, and I'd be surprised if it didn't win here.

Best Sound (Mixing)

The Bourne Ultimatum
No Country for Old Men
Ratatouille
3:10 to Yuma
Transformers

There are two schools of thought with this category. Quite often, it is one of those awards that gets swept up by a generally popular film. However, it is also one of those categories that can go to big budget stuff with lots of explosions. My suspicion this time around is that it will be one of No Country for Old Men's haul. If I was allowed two guesses I would also say Transformers has a chance, but I'll stick with the Coens' film (which incidentally won the industry award for this). The Bourne Ultimatum won the equivalent BAFTA, but that film got a disproportionate amount of love at those awards.

Sound Editing

The Bourne Ultimatum
No Country for Old Men
Ratatouille
There Will Be Blood
Transformers

This award, which focuses more on the creation of sound effects than on their recording, can also be a bit tricky to predict. But on this occasion I'd say Transformers has a slight edge over its more serious opponents. It's a film in which an awful lot of the sound effects had to be created from scratch, and many of them don't half blow out the speakers. It is worth mentioning that Pearl Harbor won this award some years ago, while the other sound category went to a more serious opponent. So there is a degree of history here.

The ceremony will take place on Sunday 24th February at the Kodak Theatre in Hollywood. For those of you lucky enough to have Sky Movies (or ABC in America), be sure to tune in to see the winners and losers. At this point, I normally say I hope I'm not wrong with all of my picks, but I'm going to be cocky this year. Therefore, I hope I get more than Daniel Day-Lewis right.

© David Mercier
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