Back in July, I penned a Feature on Heath Ledger's chances of picking up an Oscar nomination for his performance in The Dark Knight. I suggested a number of factors that might help him to a posthumous nomination, including the obvious quality of his performance, as well as a lack of very noticeable alternatives. Now, coming into the middle of November, I am not only convinced that what I wrote in that Feature has a more than decent chance of reflecting reality; I am also starting to be convinced that the same factors are going to apply to The Dark Knight itself. Could we really see a Batman film in contention for the Best Picture Oscar?

The simple truth this year is that the traditional Oscar-bait has failed to capture the attention of either the public or the critics. That's not to suggest that it's been a bad year; in many ways I don't think it has been, it's just that the types of film that usually go down well with the AMPAS crowd have stuttered, struggled and in many cases failed completely. Take The Changeling, for example; Clint Eastwood directing Angelina Jolie in a powerhouse drama about a woman taking on corruption in the LAPD and solving the mystery of her kidnapped son. Now, I personally don't have a problem with Oscar-bait, indeed many of my favourite Best Picture winners would fall into that category. But films like The Changeling are Oscar-bait none the less; a big star, a massively experienced director, and packed, no doubt, with various compelling ideas. And what has it enjoyed? Average reviews, little word of mouth and unimpressive box office takings.

The same could be said for Body of Lies. Ridley Scott directing Russell Crowe and Leonardo DiCaprio in an espionage thriller - written by the Oscar-winning screenwriter of The Departed - that spans a multitude of different countries and themes. Like The Changeling, I haven't seen Body of Lies yet; I may well love them both - we shall just have to wait and see on that score. But it had a very poor showing at the box office, and its reviews were mixed at best. Of course, over the coming month or so we will see more films that could well have a chance at being nominated for one or many Oscars. My suspicion is that this year AMPAS will turn to more independent and smaller films, and there are quite a few of those yet to be released. However, what is abundantly clear at this point is that the so-called 'big hitters' have failed to solidify themselves as Oscar favourites.

Hollywood's favourite artists have also taken something of a year off. What did Martin Scorsese make this year? A documentary about The Rolling Stones. What did Steven Spielberg make? Another Indiana Jones film. And as for actors, where are Tom Hanks, Reese Witherspoon, Meryl Streep and other Oscar darlings. To be fair, Streep has Doubt coming out soon - which looks deliciously baity - but it hasn't been a year for the big stars. I do wonder how much of this has to do with the WGA strike earlier in the year. It's not the films that were delayed during the strike that I'm talking about; films made over the summer would be released well into next year anyway and not in time for Oscar consideration this time around. What I'm talking about are the films that would have started production in late 2007 and early this year, but which were delayed in their entirety to stop the strike cutting their production schedule in half. I know for a fact that this halted dozens of films; studios were keen to finish the films they already had in production, rather than starting new ones.

The rumour mill has also been incredibly active. The latest one I have heard is that Quantum of Solace is being heavily touted as an Oscar contender, and in all the most prestigious categories. While we shouldn't forget that Casino Royale was nominated for a total of nine BAFTAs, we should also remember that it is only won one of them; for sound design, if I remember rightly. What's more, Quantum of Solace has not enjoyed the acclaim that Casino Royale did. But rumours like this suggest two things. First of all, they suggest that the Bond producers sense a gap; they wouldn't waste money pushing for nominations they felt they were never likely to receive. And they also suggest that AMPAS might be looking at different types of film this year, whether begrudgingly or not. If you wanted to, you could even see the gossip of a Bond film as a Best Picture contender as a way of Hollywood attaching itself to one type of nonconventional film in order to keep another one out. Could Quantum of Solace be a countermeasure to hamper The Dark Knight's chances.

Naturally, all I can do at this stage is speculate, guess and repeat gossip. We will have to wait until January to see whether my prediction will come true. But at this stage in the day it's not just crackpot small fry reviewers like me making predictions like this; some very big names are getting in on the act as well. You only need to read some of the big American film journals to see just how rife this sort of talk is. So, will we see The Dark Knight nominated for Best Picture alongside the odd acting nomination? Nobody knows sure, but it has moved from the realm of the impossible to that of the definite possibility. I'm not really a betting man, but I might take a look at the odds on offer.

© David Mercier
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