It's an odd year this year. Because of the various other things I have had on my plate recently, I haven't managed to review a lot of the films nominated in the biggest categories in time for the Oscars. However, this does not mean I haven't actually seen them - which I have done - and I will put reviews up of them in good time. Where there are gaps in my viewing experiences I will bring them to your attention, but in general I think I'm sufficiently equipped to tackle my predictions again. And as with last year I'm not predicting the 'Shorts', though I'll still have a stab at a couple of the more major categories where I haven't seen anything either.

Update - The winners are now highlighted in bold, as is my usual way. I correctly predicated 18 out of 21 categories (86%) which comfortably my best series of predictions since I started doing this - my previous best was 14 out of 21 (66%). Part of this is because I think I made some good guesses, but certain awards were certainly more predictable this year than they usually are.

Best Picture

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Slumdog Millionaire is probably the most popular favourite for this particular award that there has been for the last few years at least. It won at the Globes, the PGAs the BAFTAs and, bizarrely in my view, at the SAG - where it took the best acting by an ensemble cast prize. This was despite it probably being the weakest of all the nominees in terms of the collective strength of its performances. This can be taken as a sign of how much it is liked. As for me, I liked the film - I gave it a good rating, and I said many positive things about it. Frankly, however, the only one of its rivals that I can say I definitely didn't like as much was Milk, so it's not really my favourite. I'm almost certain it'll win, and in a way it's nice that what is a relatively tiny film - made by Britain and India - is the favourite here. But I'm not sure it'll be a winner that time will look back kindly upon.

Best Director

Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry - The Reader
David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant - Milk

The story in this category is much the same as it is in the Best Picture one. Boyle has won absolutely everything up until this point - including the BAFTA and the DGA. What's actually quite interesting about this is that he isn't what you'd call a Hollywood darling. This is his first Oscar nomination, and he's never really made films to catch the Academy's eye. So in some respects it's telling that he finds himself nominated for the first time in his career for directing a film which is sort of half his usual thing, and half exactly what the Academy likes. As with the previous category, because Slumdog Millionaire isn't my favourite of the bunch I'd prefer this to go somewhere else - maybe Fincher - but I don't think it will.

Best Actor

Richard Jenkins - The Visitor
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn - Milk
Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler

This category is still considered to be open by many - odd considering that Rourke has won absolutely everything over Penn. The only performance here I haven't seen is that of Jenkins, but I don't think he's in with much of a shot anyway. Of the ones I have seen, the least impressive - by a long shot - is Pitt's. That's not to say it's a bad performance - it's a good one - but it wasn't on the same level as the others. Langella did some of his best acting for years, but I still don't think that will be enough - it's between Rourke and Penn. Out of the two, I'd prefer it to be Rourke. Despite Milk showcasing Penn's best work for some time, Rourke has two things going for him. First of all, he was brilliant - and I certainly preferred The Wrestler to Milk. But it's also something of a comeback for him as well, and AMPAS loves a comeback.

Best Actress

Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Melissa Leo - Frozen River
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Kate Winslet - The Reader

Two performances here have eluded me; Leo's - I confess I hadn't actually heard of the film until the nominations were announced - and Hathaway's. I was annoyed I missed the latter, since it was caused by a print that never arrived, and obviously because I'd heard good things. In fact, at the beginning of the season Hathaway was the front-runner. And yet as I type this now she doesn't have much Oscar buzz around her anymore. Likewise, Jolie was billed as a big contender, but hasn't won anything either. It's between Streep and Winslet - probably the best actresses of their respective generations. Intriguingly, Streep won the SAG for this - usually a good sign. But that could well be because Winslet was nominated in the Supporting category - which she won herself. And then, of course, Winslet won the BAFTA a couple of weeks ago. Therefore, I'm going for Winslet. I don't think her performance in The Reader was a supporting one at all - as some have said - and the fact that the film is a Best Picture nominee also boosts her chances from a statistical standpoint. I don't think it's actually the best performance of her career, but she'd be a worthy winner of the one award that still eludes her.

Best Supporting Actor

Josh Brolin - Milk
Robert Downey Jr. - Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon - Revolutionary Road

This is a really, really good category - as it was last year, in fact. It's the only acting category where there's not a single nomination or performance I have any issues with. It's amazing to see some of these picks here as well, considering we have one from a Batman film and one where a white guy plays a black guy - not exactly traditional Academy choices. But fair play to them for actually picking them. Months ago I speculated whether Ledger was going to get a nomination, and now he looks like the clear favourite to win. Also, through winning the SAG and the BAFTA in particular, his efforts can no longer be considered 'lesser' than those of actors in more Oscar-friendly films; these awards have legitimised it as a serious and worthy performance. Whether or not he would have won had he not died is something of a moot point, but he'd be a deserving winner. If it doesn't go to him I'd be genuinely happy to see it go to any of the others - because they are all great - but I think it's going the late Australian's way.

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams - Doubt
Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis - Doubt
Taraji P. Henson - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler

This is a really interesting category, and for a number of reasons. When awards buzz first started, this was Kate Winslet's category - for The Reader - and Anne Hathaway was the sensible money for Actress. How times have changed. No Winslet here, and now favourite to win what had been earmarked as Hathaway's Oscar. So we have a far more open field. As already mentioned - and thanks to the fruity nominating systems - Winslet won the SAG and the Golden Globe, and Cruz won the BAFTA. At the back of my mind I get the feeling the Academy would like to give it to Cruz. And this is shame for me, because I didn't care for Vicky Cristina Barcelona at all. I actually preferred all the other performances, but I think it's reasonably likely Cruz is going to be the first person in history to win an Oscar for behaving erratically in Spanish. My overall preference would be Tomei or Henson, but I think it's Cruz's award.

Best Foreign Language Film

The Baader Meinhof Complex (Germany)
The Class (France)
Revanche (Austria)
Departures (Japan)
Waltz with Bashir (Israel)

I've not seen any of these, but I'll take a stab. My usual cinema has become awful at getting foreign films of late, so I'm disappointed that I've missed out on the choices here. There's no I've Loved You So Long, which won the BAFTA, so I'm going for Waltz with Bashir, which picked up the Golden Globe. Israel isn't in the good books of the Hollywood liberals at the moment, but it seems to me that a film as distinctive as their offering - it is animated - is as good a bet as any for what is a relatively open category. If not, I suspect it will be The Baader Meinhof Complex, but I'll stick with Bashir as my official guess.

Best Animated Feature Film

Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
WALL-E

They've probably already engraved WALL-E onto this statue, and it's going to be another win for Pixar. Had the award been for the first half of the respective films, I wouldn't have a problem with this likely choice. But I honestly think that WALL-E tailed off significantly once the humans showed up. Bolt isn't in with a shot - though it's Disney's best effort in a while - and I just don't see Kung Fu Panda - which would be my choice - winning either. That trophy shelf at Pixar is most likely going to need an extra nail or two come Monday morning.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

We're in a strange situation here, as every Best Picture nominee with the exception of one is nominated in this category - Milk is the loaner at the expense of Doubt. It's a rare thing for all Best Picture nominees to even get nominated for their screenplays - believe it or not - but for four of the five to be in the same category is even more unusual. As things stand, I'm going to go for Slumdog Millionaire/Simon Beaufoy here. I think the sweep it's likely to make is going to help, but it also won the BAFTA, the Golden Globe and at the WGA award. If I were voting I'd go for Doubt; there's a reason why the play it is adapted from won the Pulitzer Prize.

Best Original Screenplay

Frozen River
Happy-Go-Lucky
In Bruges
Milk
WALL-E

This category is far more open, and actually far more interesting. Is this where Milk picks up an award to compensate it for more than likely missing out everywhere else? Will Milk and Frozen River suffer for being nominated in a category which often tends to favour comedies, and for finding themselves up against three of them? Pixar must be pleased to get a screenplay nomination - as they did with Ratatouille last year - but I don't think WALL-E is really in with a shot. Based on the previous awards this could go anywhere; In Bruges took the BAFTA, but Milk won at the WGA. And the fact that a little film like Happy-Go-Lucky got noticed at all is significant - it means it has fans. I'd like to see it go the way of In Bruges, but my suspicion is it'll head in the direction of Milk/Dustin Lance Black. The former is the sort of film that would find it easier to win a BAFTA than an Oscar, whereas it's the other way around with the latter.

Best Music - Score

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Defiance
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E

I think this is probably Slumdog Millionaire/A.R. Rahman's. I think this score has won just about everything it can, including the BAFTA and the Golden Globe. Rahman is huge in India, where he has sold over 300 million albums and soundtracks, but this would be his first Oscar nomination and win. This is a 'sweep' award quite a lot of the time as well, which helps his chances here too. I liked the score, though I didn't think it was as good as Alexandre Desplat's Benjamin Button offering, or even Danny Elfman's work in Milk. But I reckon this category is a done deal.

Best Music - Song

Slumdog Millionaire - Jai Ho
Slumdog Millionaire - O Saya
WALL-E - Down to Earth

Usually I'd say that when multiple songs are nominated from the same film this gives both/all of them a decreased chance of eventually winning. However, I'm still convinced that Slumdog Millionaire/A.R. Rahman is going to win here - for which one is the more difficult decision. On what is pretty much the toss of a coin, I'll go for Jai Ho - it's slightly more catchy than O Saya. I'd actually quite like Down to Earth to win, but I don't reckon it will. If it does, I'd actually be quite pleased to waste this prediction.

Best Documentary Feature

The Betrayal - Nerakhoon
Encounters at the End of the World
The Garden
Man on Wire
Trouble the Water

Man on Wire is the only film here I have actually seen - on DVD a few weeks ago. I remember when it came out in America it got a lot of very good buzz, and I enjoyed it, so I'll go for it here. It certainly seems to be the most well-known of the nominees. It also won the Best British Film BAFTA a couple of weeks ago - something not a lot of documentaries manage to do. So I think this puts it in a fairly strong position to triumph here.

Best Visual Effects

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man

The Academy have something of a brilliant record of getting this category spectacularly wrong. See last year for example, where the Coca Cola bear beat the film with comfortably the best CGI effects to date. However, there are certain other trends to follow. For example, when there is a Best Picture nominee in consideration here it will often end up with the award, even if its effects weren't necessarily the best. I didn't actually think the effects in Benjamin Button were flawless; they were excellent, but there were some untidy edges, so to speak. But I'd say it's the good bet here. Iron Man would probably be my choice; not least for the seamless integration of the costumed actor and the fully CGI version. But elderly Brad Pitt is in a good position here after winning the BAFTA, and of course it has the advantage of using a technique that hasn't really been seen before.

Best Cinematography

Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

I'm something of an old fart when it comes to cinematography; I like everything big, glossy and plush. But I don't get to vote at the Oscars, so what I like is rather irrelevant. On paper, I'd say this award belongs to The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, but in reality I think it's going to Anthony Dod Mantle for Slumdog Millionaire. Again, this is an award which can be swept up by a tide, but Mantle also has good form by winning both the BAFTA and at the ASC - which means he has the professional vote. Changeling might offer a surprise, and it's good to see The Dark Knight here at all, but I think this is another for the little film that could.

Best Film Editing

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

Again, I think we're looking at Slumdog Millionaire. Chris Dickens won the BAFTA for starters, and it seems that both BAFTA and AMPAS like jerky, gritty editing a heck of a lot more than I do. To be fair, I think the editing suited the film well - and said as much in my review - I'm just not sure I'm in love with it. My choice would probably have been Frost/Nixon; you need good editing to make two men sitting down and talking for an hour work from a tension point of view. I'm disappointed Body of Lies wasn't nominated here, I have to say.

Best Art Direction

Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Duchess
Revolutionary Road

My suspicion is that this one will go the way of The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. It was very much one of the film's strengths, and I think the fact that it spans 80+ years in time will also help it a lot. This meant lots of changes and updates, and voters will - rightly - be impressed by that. The Dark Knight might also be in with a shot, and likewise for The Duchess, but Benjamin Button looks like the likely - and worthy - winner in my book.

Best Costume Design

Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Duchess
Milk
Revolutionary Road

This used to be something of an odd category for me; until last year I had correctly predicted winners which absolutely nobody else seemed to have seen coming. However, that track record ended with Elizabeth: The Golden Age. But I'm going to learn from my mistake; I should have seen that what AMPAS tends to like more than anything else is big wigs, frilly dresses and lots of period flair. They much prefer giving costume awards to period productions than contemporary ones. And you can't get more period than The Duchess. It also won the BAFTA and an industry award, so I think it's in with a good chance. I wouldn't mind it winning at all, though I was also quite impressed with this aspect of Benjamin Button as well.

Best Make-Up

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Hellboy II: The Golden Army

You could probably stick The Curious Case of Benjamin Button on this Oscar already. It won the BAFTA, and if there's one thing the Academy really loves is when make-up is used to make people look old. And Benjamin Button is all about this, all the time. I don't think Hellboy II has a hope in heck of winning this, though it's nice to see it nominated. And while The Dark Knight had some memorable make-up, it wasn't as challenging as that in Benjamin Button, so that's where I think this particular Oscar is going.

Best Sound (Mixing)

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E
Wanted

Both sound categories are interesting this year, as they contain a good balance of Oscar favourites and traditional blockbusters. This category is for the mixing of the sound effects into the film, which is different from actually creating them. This is also the award that tends to have a better chance of going to more serious films - musicals are a regular winner of it. So, as it won the BAFTA in this area, I'm going for Slumdog Millionaire. On balance, I would probably go for The Dark Knight myself, but out of the two categories it's the one I get the least excited about.

Sound Editing

The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E
Wanted

This category, on the other hand, I have always found really interesting. The actual creation of new, different and unusual sound effects is a complicated and challenging process, and the iconic stories behind some of the most famous sound effects are interesting in their own right. For example, the noise made by lightsabers in the Star Wars films was discovered by accident when a microphone fell off the back of a television, and the resulting noise was combined with the hum from an old projector. I'd really like to see either Iron Man or The Dark Knight win here, but I'm going to do something odd here; I'm going to give myself a point if either WALL-E or Slumdog Millionaire wins. This is because if they pick the latter they clearly don't understand what the category is actually for, whereas the former is precisely the sort of film that I can see them picking for the right reasons.

This year's ceremony will take place on Sunday 22nd February at the Kodak Theatre in Hollywood. As was the case last year it's on Sky Movies if you're in the UK, and ABC in America. And even if you're not that interested in who wins, or how seeing how many picks I got wrong this year, new host Hugh Jackman might prove to be something a little bit different. We shall have to wait and see, on all counts.

© David Mercier
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