It's less than a week to go before the 78th Annual Academy Awards. With that in mind, I've decided to take a close look at the nominations for each category and have a stab at predicting who the likely winners will be, and who I think the winners should be. Please note, for some of the categories I have not seen any of the nominations, so I cannot really comment on them. Due to this, these categories are not included on the list.

Update - I've finally gotten around to marking the winners - they are highlighted in bold. In total, I correctly predicated 13 out of 22 categories (59% correct). Hopefully I can beat this total next year.

Best Picture

Brokeback Mountain
Crash
Goodnight, and Good Luck
Munich
Capote

I'd be amazed if this were anything other than Brokeback Mountain. It won at the BAFTAs and has been the favourite for such a long time. All things considered, my choice would have been Munich, but the only way I can see any film beating Brokeback is if nobody voted for the other 3 nominees and just concentrated on a single alternative.

Best Director

Ang Lee - Brokeback Mountain
Paul Haggis - Crash
George Clooney - Goodnight, and Good Luck
Steven Spielberg - Munich
Bennett Miller - Capote

Like Best Film, I can't see a shock here. Even though it's fair to say Ang Lee will be helped along by the probable sweep Brokeback Mountain is going to make, it's a wonderfully directed film in its own right. Even Clooney's reliable Hollywood liberal vote could see a sizeable portion swing over to Lee as well, and even though Munich was a superb film in my view, I just don't see it picking up the award.

Best Actor

Philip Seymour Hoffman - Capote
David Strathairn - Good Night, and Good Luck
Heath Ledger - Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Phoenix - Walk the Line
Terrence Howard - Hustle and Flow

Philip Seymour Hoffman's stunning performance in Capote gives him a massive advantage for this one, and rightly so. Although Ledger was also excellent in Brokeback Mountain, it's fair to say it was the first exceptional performance of his career, and that rarely gets instant reward. Hoffman has won pretty much everything ahead of Ledger, including the BAFTA and Golden Globe, so I can't see him losing now. There might be a small surge of support for Phoenix nearer the time, especially if it looks like Witherspoon is going to win Best Actress, but I still don't think it would be enough.

Best Actress

Judi Dench - Mrs. Henderson Presents
Felicity Huffman - Transamerica
Charlize Theron - North Country
Reese Witherspoon - Walk the Line
Keira Knightley - Pride and Prejudice

I don't see anyone but Reese Witherspoon coming away with this Oscar, and it would be well deserved - importantly she has won the Golden Globe, the Screen Actors Guild Award and the BAFTA. Although the Academy has a soft spot for actresses "uglifying" themselves for roles (Huffman in Transamerica) Witherspoon's performance really was special, but you never know, Huffman might sneak it. Congratulations are in order for Keira Knightley for getting a nomination, but much like Judi Dench I feel as though her performance involved playing herself a little too much. North Country wasn't particularly well received, and Theron's role was largely a copy of Erin Brockovich, so I can't see her winning either.

Best Supporting Actor

George Clooney - Syriana
Jake Gyllenhaal - Brokeback Mountain
Paul Giamatti - Cinderella Man
Matt Dillon - Crash
William Hurt - A History of Violence

This is perhaps the most open category this year, with many critics warming to Clooney's excellent performance in Syriana. However, Giamatti was also very good in Cinderella Man and picked up the SAG award for his troubles - it was also a shock that he missed out last year for Sideways, and the Academy sometimes votes to "make up" for a past decision. We mustn't forget the other nominees either, particularly Gyllenhaal who picked up the BAFTA, and I thought he out-performed Ledger in many ways. This looks like it could be a close one, but I have an inkling that it might well be Giamatti's day, providing Brokeback doesn't sweep every category.

Best Supporting Actress

Rachel Weisz - The Constant Gardener
Michelle Williams - Brokeback Mountain
Frances McDormand - North Country
Amy Adams - Junebug
Catherine Keener - Capote

Rachel Weisz has long been the favourite for an excellent performance in The Constant Gardener, and it would be fantastic for her to win. She only missed out at the BAFTAs because she was in a different category and had to compete against Reese Witherspoon. Amy Adams's nomination recognises a great performance in a flawed film, as does Frances McDormand's. I suspect Catherine Keener is Weisz's closest challenge - she was excellent in Capote, although Philip Seymour Hoffman's performance was so good in some respects it overshadowed hers.

Best Foreign Language Film

Don't Tell (Italy)
Joyeux Noel (France)
Paradise Now (Palestinian territories)
Sophie Scholl - The Final Days (Germany)
Tsotsi (South Africa)

My suspicion is that Sophie Scholl - The Final Days is the sort of film which might appeal to the sympathies of the Academy voters. Even though it was somewhat flawed as a film, it's also the most easy one for voters to relate to since it doesn't exactly cover new ground. Joyeux Noel was really rather a nice film, but I don't think it's in with a shot.

Best Animated Feature Film

Howl's Moving Castle
Corpse Bride
Wallace and Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit

The Academy loves Wallace and Gromit, so I would think that's where the Oscar will go. Although I thought Curse of the Were-Rabbit wasn't quite as brilliant as I had expected, it was superior to Corpse Bride in nearly every way, and Howl's Moving Castle was pretty second-rate for Miyazaki.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Brokeback Mountain
Capote
The Constant Gardener
A History of Violence
Munich

After picking up the BAFTA, my suspicion is that Brokeback Mountain will win here too. It's a difficult one to judge because all the screenplays nominated had exceedingly good points, and some fairly drab sections too. Certainly it wouldn't be a shock if Brokeback won, and I don't think anyone could argue too much about it either.

Best Original Screenplay

Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck
Match Point
The Squid and the Whale
Syriana

Crash won the BATFA, and I think it's a toss-up between this and Good Night, and Good Luck. Oddly I think it will all depend on how people have voted for Clooney in the Supporting Actor category. I don't think he's in with a shot for the Directing award, but if people have not voted for him for Supporting, they could well cast a sympathy vote for his Screenplay, and it might just swing it his way. I suspect he'll also get a decent handful of the Hollywood liberal votes. However, based on other successes, I suspect Crash will just sneak it.

Best Music - Score

Brokeback Mountain
The Constant Gardener
Memoirs of a Geisha
Munich
Pride and Prejudice

My suspicion is that Gustavo Santaolalla's score for Brokeback Mountain will walk away with the Oscar, but I would like to see it go to John Williams for Memoirs of a Geisha, and it's a good sign for him that he won the BAFTA. His score for Munich was also very fine, but Geisha's really was something special. However, too often this category tends to follow the general mood of the rest of the awards, and since I suspect Brokeback Mountain will be the biggest winner on the night, I suspect that's where this Oscar will go. It's a fine score no doubt, but it's a little insubstantial in my view.

Best Music - Song

In the Deep - Crash
It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp - Hustle and Flow
Travelin' Thru - Transamerica

This tends to be a category which rarely picks a controversial song, so I suspect it will be Dolly Parton and Travelin' Thru which walks away with it this time. Even in the year when Blame Canada was nominated, it was a relatively dull Phil Collins song which won because it was the "safer" option, so I suspect the slightly lighter Parton song will win here.

Best Documentary Feature

Darwin's Nightmare
Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room
March of the Penguins
Murderball
Street Fight

March of the Penguins is the clear favourite here in my view, and the only one which seems to have attracted much attention in America. It is also perhaps the safest option, and the most family orientated, so I suspect this will win the Oscar. In all honesty, it's no better than a decent episode of a David Attenborough programme, but since they're not blessed with those in America, I would think Penguins will probably win it.

Best Visual Effects

The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe
King Kong
War of the Worlds

I find it astonishing that Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith is not nominated in this category, since it had the most consistently impressive effects of any film this year by a long way. With that in mind I'd like to see the Oscar go to War of the Worlds because its effects were very consistent and extremely well crafted. However, it will go to one of the other two, with voters perhaps more likely to be swayed by the charm of Narnia than the hype of Kong, so I'm leaning that way, although Kong did pick up the BAFTA. Both Narnia and King Kong had some really shoddy moments but one of them will win it, it's just difficult to be sure which.

Best Cinematography

Batman Begins
Brokeback Mountain
Goodnight, and Good Luck
Memoirs of a Geisha
The New World

Memoirs of a Geisha won the BAFTA here, and I would expect it to take the Oscar too. The film may have been flawed, but the cinematography was nothing short of phenomenal. There's a chance that if Brokeback Mountain does a total sweep, it could pick up the award instead, but hopefully this won't happen because it would be a lazy outcome. Goodnight, and Good Luck is also worthy of note but I don't think it's in with a real chance.

Best Art Direction

Goodnight, and Good Luck
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire
King Kong
Memoirs of a Geisha
Pride and Prejudice

This is an odd category, often because voters don't actually know what they're voting for and just lump it with a film that just sweeps the awards - Return of the King in 2004. Goblet of Fire won the BAFTA and it was certainly impressive. I also think that Memoirs of a Geisha might be in with a shot too, and if it does well in other "photogenic" categories I think it might take the Oscar here.

Best Animated Short Film

Badgered
The Moon and the Son: An Imagined Conversation
The Mysterious Geographic Explorations of Jasper Morello
9
One Man Band

Cute, fun and simple, I would like to see Badgered take this one, and it could well do. It's a little political but in some cases the Academy quite likes that. It's a very difficult one to call, but Badgered really is a rather charming little short, and is clearly the most independently made one.

Best Costume Design

Charlie and the Chocolate Factory
Memoirs of a Geisha
Mrs. Henderson Presents
Pride and Prejudice
Walk The Line

The costumes were one of the truly stunning things about Memoirs of a Geisha, and I suspect its shortcomings as a film won't prevent it from picking up a deserved Oscar here - it also won the BAFTA. Three of the other nominees were really only period costumes and nothing we haven't seen before, and I doubt Charlie and the Chocolate Factory will be seriously considered either.

Best Make-Up

The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe
Cinderella Man
Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith

The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe won the BAFTA for this, so it could well win here. The make-up in Revenge of the Sith was also very fine, even if it wasn't immediately obvious just how much of it there was. It would also be nice since the Star Wars film was snubbed in the more technical categories if it could win here, but I suspect it will go to Narnia. It's also amazing not to see Memoirs of a Geisha nominated here either.

Best Sound Mixing

The Chronicles of Narnia, the Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe
King Kong
Memoirs of a Geisha
Walk The Line
War of the Worlds

This award usually follows the same pattern as the Sound Editing category, but I think King Kong and Narnia pose more of a threat to War of the Worlds this time, although the Spielberg film still probably deserves it a bit more. However, voters might decide to change tact in this category and award it to Walk The Line as they did at the BAFTAs, but I think it will go to one of the blockbusters, with War of the Worlds still being technically the most impressive.

Sound Editing

King Kong
Memoirs of a Geisha
War of the Worlds

This absolutely must go to War of the Worlds which had some truly wonderful and novel sound effects, and I hope the spectacle of King Kong doesn't convince the voters otherwise. Just occasionally the Academy gets this dead right - it was awarded to the otherwise pretty awful Pearl Harbour because the sound editing skills involved were rightly recognised.

Best Film Editing

Cinderella Man
The Constant Gardener
Crash
Munich
Walk The Line

The Constant Gardener won the BAFTA for this category, but it didn't have Cinderella Man or Munich to contend with. It's a tricky one to call because voters either take it very seriously or lump it with an already successful film - Black Hawk Down is a perfect example of a film which wasn't vastly popular at the awards, but the editing was rightly recognised. I think The Constant Gardener might just nick it, but it's a close run thing with Munich not far behind.

So there you go, my thoughts on the Oscars this year - here's hoping I'm not wrong on everything. Be sure to catch the ceremony when it takes places on Sunday 5th March, in the Kodak Theatre in Hollywood.

© David Mercier
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